Tag Archives: Brazil

Brazil’s Slide Continues and Takes a Lurch to the Right

BY CHARLES FIERTZ As Brazil continues its 5-year slide of worsening on the Fragile States Index (FSI), this year marks the country’s sharpest year-on-year decline yet, seeing it tie for most-worsened country. Dashing tentative hopes for reversal and recovery that had emerged at the end of 2017, 2018 saw the collapse of the first shoots […]

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Taken to the Cleaners: As Brazil Faces Significant Challenges, Hope May be in Sight

Brazil continued the four-year slide that began in 2014, the year that saw the beginning of Operação Lava Jato (“Operation Car Wash”) as well as the global crash of commodity prices that had driven the Brazilian boom in growth that had helped lift tens of millions out of poverty. In contrast, the intervening years have seen the country roiled by surging unemployment and widening corruption investigations that threaten to engulf the entire political system. These difficulties have encompassed most of the pressures covered by the Fragile States Index, with fully two-thirds of its indicators seeing a significant decline.[1] This year, however, the rate of worsening slowed substantially, with Brazil’s total score increasing by only 0.5 points and, although serious challenges remain, the first tentative signs of economic recovery may be evident.

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Fragile States Index 2017: Factionalization and Group Grievance Fuel Rise in Instability

BY J.J. MESSNER

Though South Sudan has returned to top position on the annual Fragile States Index (FSI) for 2017, and Finland continues to maintain its position as the world’s least fragile country, the global tumult of the past year has been borne out in the Index’s trend analysis, as Ethiopia, Mexico, and Turkey recorded the greatest worsening over 2016. A number of developed countries also recorded notable worsening scores across certain indicators, in particular the United States and the United Kingdom, which both experienced highly divisive political campaigns during 2016. The long-term trends of the FSI have also raised red flags on a number of countries – in particular South Africa and Senegal – for which the conditions that could precipitate instability have worsened significantly.

The FSI, now in its thirteenth year, is an assessment of 178 countries based on twelve social, economic, and political indicators that quantifies pressures experienced by countries, and thus their susceptibility to instability. The FSI itself is based on the CAST conflict assessment framework, a methodology developed a quarter of a century ago that continues to be implemented widely by policymakers, field practitioners, and local communities in better understanding the drivers of conflict. The FSI, adapted from the CAST framework, is assessed through a process that triangulates content analysis of over 50 million data points, with quantitative data sets and qualitative research validation.

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Falling Behind the Pack: Brazil Endures a Difficult Year of Self-Inflicted Troubles

BY GEORGE LEHNER

Brazil showed a significant decline in the 2017 FSI, becoming the fourth most worsened country since 2016, largely as a result of a devastating recession, continued fallout from widespread political corruption probes, and the impeachment of its President. Overall, Brazil worsened by 2.9 points on its total score compared to the prior year.

In nine of the twelve measures of fragility, Brazil’s performance worsened markedly, dropping most notably in the areas of Group Grievance, Demographic Pressures, and Public Services. The three-year trend line demonstrates similar levels of declines across eight of the twelve indicators, with notable changes in the Security Apparatus, the Economy, and Public Service indicators.

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“Listen to understand instead of listening to be understood,” @jjmessner. Brilliant panel on meaningful stakeholder engagement led by @AngelaUMiller about importance of building trust, communicating proactively and focusing on quality over quantity. #SW2019

Meeting with community leaders and small scale miners from Sefwi Nkatieso, Western North Region, Ghana to talk about promoting peace, sustainability and reducing use of #mercury in #ASGM

Talking #mercury reduction in the small scale gold sector in Tarkwa for our #RECLAIMS #ASGM #Ghana 🇬🇭 program supported by @StateDept with @UMaT_edu_GH @WANEP_Ghana

“Peace-o, Yes-o!” Training on conflict early warning and response with members from across the Niger Delta @P4P_NigerDelta @PINDFoundation

Anticipating the challenges of climate and disaster shocks can help preserve gains made in developing countries and prevent domino effect collapse. Join us Wed 6/5 to learn more @dana_julie @FrigentiLaura and colleagues from @fundforpeace and @UNDP RSVP:

Climate, Disasters, and Other Shocks: Are Countries Ready?

The event will be webcast live from this page. Climate, disasters, and other shocks put hard-won progress at risk of crumbling. Anticipating these cha...

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