Category Archives: Fragile States Index Analysis

Coming Apart at the Seams: Fragility in a Time of COVID-19

BY NATE HAKEN The last two years have challenged many assumptions about what it means to be fragile and what it means to be resilient.  Countries that were thought to be strong proved weak.  Problems that were thought to be straightforward proved complex.  It takes more than financial and human capital to manage and recover […]

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Security Pressures, Violence, and Nigeria’s 2023 Elections

BY NKASI WODU Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is getting ready for its general elections next year, with two front liners from the two major parties emerging in a defining election. This election will be defining for Nigerians because the candidate sworn in on May 29, 2023, will be taking over the reins of a […]

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Brazil: Distrust and Fragmentation

BY NATALIE SILVEIRA A steady decline in social and political cohesion in Brazil over the last eight years, as measured by the FSI, has created a situation of increasing precarity.  This sharp worsening coincided with a reduction in public confidence in institutions following the 2016 impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff.  As an indication of […]

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Haiti: Two Steps Forward – Three Steps Back

BY NATALIE SILVEIRA With President Jovenel Moïse’s inauguration in 2017, Haiti became the most improved country on the FSI 2018.  With his assassination in 2021, it is now among the most worsened.  Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere and has been ranked among the fifteen most fragile countries in the world in […]

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Sudan: The Push and Pull of Progress and Impasse

BY ASA COOPER In 2019, Sudan appeared to be at a turning point, with a sharp 3.2 point drop on the FSI as civil society demanded change. Protests[1] sparked by economic grievances quickly evolved into a widespread movement against 30-year dictator Omar al-Bashir. The Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a broad-based political coalition of […]

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Famine in Somalia: Crisis and Innovation

BY ASA COOPER Somalia is facing one of its worst food crises[1] in recent history. An unprecedented four consecutive failed rains[2] have created drought conditions that have left over four million people at severe levels of food insecurity and displaced[3] hundreds of thousands from their homes. The crisis has been exacerbated by conflict and insecurity […]

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Tajikistan: “A Tightly Controlled Environment”

BY EMILY SAMPLE Tajikistan is the smallest and poorest country in the central Asian region and is almost completely enveloped within the Pamir mountain range. In 2020, Tajikistan’s indicator rankings held mostly steady across the board. Despite this seeming lack of change, these scores reflect a resilience to the potential downward spiral that was possible […]

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Young and Resilient: Timor-Leste in the Time of COVID-19

BY NATALIE FIERTZ When the Global Health Security Index was released in late October 2019, barely more than a month before COVID-19 infected its first person, Timor-Leste was ranked 166th out of 195 countries. Poor – the country has a GDP per capita of just over $1500, the lowest in East Asia – and with […]

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Towards Inclusive Employment for Peace

BY ELIZABETH KARIUKI – INTERNATIONAL ALERT International Alert is a peacebuilding charity that has worked for 30 years to lay the foundations for lasting peace in communities affected by violent conflict.

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Searching for Hope in Lebanon’s Compounding Crises

BY RUTH SIMPSON – INTERNATIONAL ALERT International Alert is a peacebuilding charity that has worked for 30 years to lay the foundations for lasting peace in communities affected by violent conflict. Since the nationwide protest movement that swept the country in October 2019, Lebanon – the country and its people – has been experiencing intersecting […]

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