Tag Archives: Cuba

Fragile States Index 2017: Factionalization and Group Grievance Fuel Rise in Instability

BY J.J. MESSNER

Though South Sudan has returned to top position on the annual Fragile States Index (FSI) for 2017, and Finland continues to maintain its position as the world’s least fragile country, the global tumult of the past year has been borne out in the Index’s trend analysis, as Ethiopia, Mexico, and Turkey recorded the greatest worsening over 2016. A number of developed countries also recorded notable worsening scores across certain indicators, in particular the United States and the United Kingdom, which both experienced highly divisive political campaigns during 2016. The long-term trends of the FSI have also raised red flags on a number of countries – in particular South Africa and Senegal – for which the conditions that could precipitate instability have worsened significantly.

The FSI, now in its thirteenth year, is an assessment of 178 countries based on twelve social, economic, and political indicators that quantifies pressures experienced by countries, and thus their susceptibility to instability. The FSI itself is based on the CAST conflict assessment framework, a methodology developed a quarter of a century ago that continues to be implemented widely by policymakers, field practitioners, and local communities in better understanding the drivers of conflict. The FSI, adapted from the CAST framework, is assessed through a process that triangulates content analysis of over 50 million data points, with quantitative data sets and qualitative research validation.

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And Now for Some Good News: Where the World is Getting Better

BY DANIEL GANZ

The most fragile — and the most worsened — countries tend to attract the most attention in the Fragile States Index (FSI). However, the reality is that the majority of countries are improving based on the FSI’s trends, and a number of countries have made considerable progress in the past decade based on their FSI scores. These examples demonstrate that a long-term commitment to peace and reconciliation, poverty reduction, and economic growth collectively contributes to a government’s legitimization, and ultimately, the stability of its country.

Since his rise to power ten years ago, Cuba’s leader Raul Castro has accomplished more to improve Cuba-U.S. relations, usher in modern technologies, and stimulate its economy than his brother had done in the previous half a century. These incremental changes in Cuba’s political, economic, and social landscapes contributed to the historic events of 2016 that included the US easing trade restrictions to Cuba, diplomatic ties between the EU and Cuba were established, and President Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit the country in 88 years.

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Springtime for Castro and Cuba; Winter for Ukraine and Libya

South Sudan has topped the Fragile States Index for the second year in succession, as the country continues to be wracked by internal conflict, fractious politics, and poverty. South Sudan is joined at the most fragile end of the Index by countries that have long struggled, such as Somalia, Central African Republic, Sudan, and D.R. […]

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“Listen to understand instead of listening to be understood,” @jjmessner. Brilliant panel on meaningful stakeholder engagement led by @AngelaUMiller about importance of building trust, communicating proactively and focusing on quality over quantity. #SW2019

Meeting with community leaders and small scale miners from Sefwi Nkatieso, Western North Region, Ghana to talk about promoting peace, sustainability and reducing use of #mercury in #ASGM

Talking #mercury reduction in the small scale gold sector in Tarkwa for our #RECLAIMS #ASGM #Ghana 🇬🇭 program supported by @StateDept with @UMaT_edu_GH @WANEP_Ghana

“Peace-o, Yes-o!” Training on conflict early warning and response with members from across the Niger Delta @P4P_NigerDelta @PINDFoundation

Anticipating the challenges of climate and disaster shocks can help preserve gains made in developing countries and prevent domino effect collapse. Join us Wed 6/5 to learn more @dana_julie @FrigentiLaura and colleagues from @fundforpeace and @UNDP RSVP:

Climate, Disasters, and Other Shocks: Are Countries Ready?

The event will be webcast live from this page. Climate, disasters, and other shocks put hard-won progress at risk of crumbling. Anticipating these cha...

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