Category Archives: Nate Haken

Democracies Under Pressure

BY NATE HAKEN On debate stages, behind pulpits, in lecture halls, journals, books, and op-ed pages, experts and politicians grapple with causes, implications, and solutions to the issue of growing divisiveness across the world’s democracies. Some point to growing inequality and the need for safety nets in the face of demographic pressures and climate change. […]

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Iraq’s Improving Trajectory

BY NATE HAKEN AND SARAH COCKEY Access to safe water has always been a fundamental driver of conflict around the world. The worst drought in hundreds of years preceded the Syria crisis in 2011 and fueled unrest in Yemen. Changing rain patterns and desertification have brought farmers and herders into lethal violence, killing over ten […]

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Fragile States Index 2020 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER DE LATOUR, NATE HAKEN, PATRICIA TAFT, MARCEL MAGLO, CHARLES FIERTZ, WENDY WILSON, SARAH COCKEY, FIONA GRATHWOHL, KEENAN IULIANO   The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing […]

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Fragile States Index 2019 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, PATRICIA TAFT, IGNATIUS ONYEKWERE, HANNAH BLYTH, MARCEL MAGLO, DANIET MOGES, CHARLES FIERTZ, CHRISTINA MURPHY, WENDY WILSON, KEVIN OBIKE   The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures […]

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Understanding Resilience: The Case of Somalia

BY NATE HAKEN Global efforts at poverty reduction through infrastructure and institution-building have been an overwhelming international success, with poverty rates having dropped precipitously in the last twenty years. However, there is a glaring exception. In fragile states, with protracted or recurrent crisis, international and multilateral development efforts have not worked. In this “last mile”, […]

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It’s (Not) the Economy, Stupid

It was a rough year for the United States in 2017. It was the country’s worst year for hurricanes – Irma, Harvey, and Maria caused hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of damage in the Gulf Coast. It was the worst year for wildfires – over a million acres burned in California alone. It was the worst year for mass shootings – hundreds were killed at concerts and churches and schools. It was a pretty bad year for political polarization too, marked by politically charged investigations into Russian external intervention in the democratic process and a series of political scandals involving alleged corruption, criminality, and misconduct at the highest levels of government. Further, mass protests over issues like immigration policy and women’s rights took on greater energy than ever before. But not everything was bad. The economy continued to improve through 2017, with unemployment continuing to drop since it peaked at 10% in 2009 to a low of 4.1%, the best rate since 2000. The stock market also did well throughout 2017, continuing its rise since the crash of 2008-2009.

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Fragile States Index 2018 – Annual Report

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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Cracks in the Foundation: United States and United Kingdom

BY NATE HAKEN

Society is more resilient to shocks when social, economic, political and security pressures are manageable. However, an improving economy does not guarantee social and political cohesion.

The United States is a case in point. In 2016, unemployment (at 4.9%) was at a 9-year low; GDP per capita (at US$57,500) was at an all-time high; public services, including healthcare, had been improving for the most at-risk populations since 2013. And yet in 2016, two key indicators — Factionalized Elites and Group Grievance — spiked to unprecedented levels during and after a vitriolic presidential election campaign in which polarizing rhetoric was used about Muslims and immigrants, and a series of high-profile police shootings sparked protests across the country, exacerbating racial tensions in African-American communities.

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Fragile States Index 2017 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, HANNAH BLYTH, CHRISTINA MURPHY, AMANDA QUINN, GEORGE LEHNER, DANIEL GANZ

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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Fragile States Index 2015 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, PATRICIA TAFT, KENDALL LAWRENCE, FELIPE UMANA, SEBASTIAN PAVLOU, HANNAH BLYTH

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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