Category Archives: Hannah Blyth

Fragile States Index 2019 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, PATRICIA TAFT, IGNATIUS ONYEKWERE, HANNAH BLYTH, MARCEL MAGLO, DANIET MOGES, CHARLES FIERTZ, CHRISTINA MURPHY, WENDY WILSON, KEVIN OBIKE   The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures […]

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Ethiopia on the Rise

BY HANNAH BLYTH AND DANIET MOGES Ethiopia experienced a momentous year of political transformation in 2018. Despite a steadily worsening trend over the decade to 2017, Ethiopia is the most-improved country on the 2019 Fragile States Index (FSI). Improving by 5.3 points to a score of 94.2 in this year’s FSI, the country‘s performance could […]

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Scraping the Barrel: Oil-Dependent Venezuela in Free-Fall

When the 14-year rule of the populist President Hugo Chávez came to an end upon his death in 2013, Venezuela was already well down the path to instability. Chávez’s death made way for his handpicked successor Nicolás Maduro who, in stark contrast to Chávez’s cult of personality, many Venezuelans have come to fear and loathe.

The Venezuelan economy – which remains heavily reliant on oil exports – was hit sharply by the drop in global crude oil prices in 2013. Without the same capital to line the public coffers for popular social programs, this exposed the vulnerabilities in the Chávez-era economic policies and set the country on a path towards increased unemployment, poverty and inflation. More focused on consolidating executive power than meaningful reform, President Maduro has pushed Venezuela into a dangerously precarious position – from rampant inflation fueled by food and medical shortages, to increased violence and criminal impunity on the streets.

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Fragile States Index 2018 – Annual Report

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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Golden Era of Growth Fails to Mask Deeper Grievances in Ethiopia

BY HANNAH BLYTH

Since the end of an almost two-decades long civil war that began in 1991, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has provided relative political stability and enabled strong economic development. Though an inter-state conflict with Eritrea over disputed territory flared in 1998-2000, since the ceasefire was declared between the two countries in December 2000, Ethiopia has been on a path of strong fiscal growth and has become an increasingly respected player within the international community. Ethiopia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has risen from US$8.2 billion in 2000, to an impressive US$61.5 billion in 2015 – coinciding with major injections of foreign capital from development partners. Looking past these golden dollar sign headlines, however, there are signals that deep social and political fissures have the potential to set the country back on a path to conflict.

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Fragile States Index 2017 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, HANNAH BLYTH, CHRISTINA MURPHY, AMANDA QUINN, GEORGE LEHNER, DANIEL GANZ

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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Fragile States Index 2015 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, PATRICIA TAFT, KENDALL LAWRENCE, FELIPE UMANA, SEBASTIAN PAVLOU, HANNAH BLYTH

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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