Category Archives: George Lehner

“So Far From God, So Close to the United States.” Mexico Most Worsened in 2017

BY GEORGE LEHNER

It has been a tough year for Mexico. As Mexico has borne the brunt of combative political rhetoric from north of the border, the country has also weathered economic and political challenges, as well as an uptick of violence. The first weeks of 2017 saw widespread protests throughout Mexico, a sign that the problems that have plagued this country for last several years are continuing, a manifestation of the pressures that saw Mexico tied as the equal most worsened country on the 2017 Fragile States Index (FSI).

In 10 of the 12 FSI indicators, Mexico showed a decline, moving it’s total score by 3.9 points, a significant change over the prior year. Most notably, Mexico worsened in the Security Apparatus, Economic Decline, Refugees & IDP’s, and Group Grievance indicators. Though the economy continued to grow slightly, the overall economic outlook in Mexico, and its ability to sustain meaningful economic progress, was clouded by doubt. This was largely due to fluctuating oil prices and the uncertainty of the impact of the U.S. election on U.S.-Mexican relations.

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Falling Behind the Pack: Brazil Endures a Difficult Year of Self-Inflicted Troubles

BY GEORGE LEHNER

Brazil showed a significant decline in the 2017 FSI, becoming the fourth most worsened country since 2016, largely as a result of a devastating recession, continued fallout from widespread political corruption probes, and the impeachment of its President. Overall, Brazil worsened by 2.9 points on its total score compared to the prior year.

In nine of the twelve measures of fragility, Brazil’s performance worsened markedly, dropping most notably in the areas of Group Grievance, Demographic Pressures, and Public Services. The three-year trend line demonstrates similar levels of declines across eight of the twelve indicators, with notable changes in the Security Apparatus, the Economy, and Public Service indicators.

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Fragile States Index 2017 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, HANNAH BLYTH, CHRISTINA MURPHY, AMANDA QUINN, GEORGE LEHNER, DANIEL GANZ

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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