Category Archives: Fragile States Index Analysis

And Now for Some Good News: Where the World is Getting Better

BY DANIEL GANZ

The most fragile — and the most worsened — countries tend to attract the most attention in the Fragile States Index (FSI). However, the reality is that the majority of countries are improving based on the FSI’s trends, and a number of countries have made considerable progress in the past decade based on their FSI scores. These examples demonstrate that a long-term commitment to peace and reconciliation, poverty reduction, and economic growth collectively contributes to a government’s legitimization, and ultimately, the stability of its country.

Since his rise to power ten years ago, Cuba’s leader Raul Castro has accomplished more to improve Cuba-U.S. relations, usher in modern technologies, and stimulate its economy than his brother had done in the previous half a century. These incremental changes in Cuba’s political, economic, and social landscapes contributed to the historic events of 2016 that included the US easing trade restrictions to Cuba, diplomatic ties between the EU and Cuba were established, and President Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit the country in 88 years.

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Colombia Enjoys a Peace Dividend After Half-Century of Conflict

BY CHRISTINA MURPHY

Colombia captured international headlines and accolades in 2016 when the government signed a peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). This victory for President Juan Manuel Santos’ government marked the beginning of the end for one of the world’s longest running civil wars. Although the deal was narrowly rejected by Colombian voters in October 2016, the Colombian Congress approved a revised deal in November.

The conflict between the Colombian government, the FARC, and other guerilla and paramilitary groups has taken a devastating toll on Colombia over the past half-century. More than 220,000 people were killed between 1958 and 2012, mainly civilians, and more than 7 million people have been displaced by the conflict. Estimates suggest that the conflict also cost the country billions in lost economic growth.

While the agreement was a major win for the country in 2016, it comes on the heels of a much longer trajectory of improving governance and legitimacy in Colombia. In fact, Colombia has been steadily improving every year since the FSI began, from a total score of 91.8 and ranking of 27 in 2006, to being ranked 69th in 2017 with a score of 78.9.

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Cracks in the Foundation: United States and United Kingdom

BY NATE HAKEN

Society is more resilient to shocks when social, economic, political and security pressures are manageable. However, an improving economy does not guarantee social and political cohesion.

The United States is a case in point. In 2016, unemployment (at 4.9%) was at a 9-year low; GDP per capita (at US$57,500) was at an all-time high; public services, including healthcare, had been improving for the most at-risk populations since 2013. And yet in 2016, two key indicators — Factionalized Elites and Group Grievance — spiked to unprecedented levels during and after a vitriolic presidential election campaign in which polarizing rhetoric was used about Muslims and immigrants, and a series of high-profile police shootings sparked protests across the country, exacerbating racial tensions in African-American communities.

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Fragile States Index 2017 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, HANNAH BLYTH, CHRISTINA MURPHY, AMANDA QUINN, GEORGE LEHNER, DANIEL GANZ

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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A Data Analytics View of the French Elections

BY J.J. MESSNER AND ALEXANDRA KAPITANSKAYA

There are probably few French elections in recent times that have captured quite this level of international attention, particularly in the Anglosphere. Certainly, the stakes are high, as two candidates with vastly different views on French identity, French values, and the role of France in the world square off against each other. Much of the attention is of course being driven by the electoral experiences of the United Kingdom and United States in 2016, wherein both countries – albeit in considerably different circumstances – took hard turns to the right, with campaigns driven by divisive rhetoric and populist platforms. As political turmoil continues in America, and as Britain faces potentially painful Brexit negotiations, the question on the minds of many observers is, ‘could it happen in France as well?’

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Fragile States Index 2016 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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Europe’s Refugee Crisis Underscores Global Interconnectedness

As the civil war in Syria enters its sixth year, its effects continue to wreak havoc not only on its own war-ravaged population, but also upon countries farther afield. In the 2016 Fragile States Index, Syria was again one of the most worsened countries year-on-year, catapulting them into the list of the top ten most […]

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Underlying Concerns Create a Worrying Outlook for Britain Beyond Brexit

As the dust settles on the historic Brexit vote and its effects, it is easy to focus on the near term, visible side effects. Even in the unlikely event that Britain manages to negotiate an association deal that is as good as being in the European Union, it will now no longer have a voice […]

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Springtime for Castro and Cuba; Winter for Ukraine and Libya

South Sudan has topped the Fragile States Index for the second year in succession, as the country continues to be wracked by internal conflict, fractious politics, and poverty. South Sudan is joined at the most fragile end of the Index by countries that have long struggled, such as Somalia, Central African Republic, Sudan, and D.R. […]

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Fragile States Index 2015 – Annual Report

BY J.J. MESSNER, NATE HAKEN, PATRICIA TAFT, KENDALL LAWRENCE, FELIPE UMANA, SEBASTIAN PAVLOU, HANNAH BLYTH

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

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